The Security, Policy & Nationalism Research Center (UGSPN) represents a synthesis of expertise in security, policy, nationalism studies and research. Established with the vision of becoming a leading institution, UGSPN strives to provide a comprehensive and integrated approach to understanding, researching, and influencing policy in the realms of national security, defense, and nationalism studies.
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Note:
This article was originally published as part of the SCEEUS Guest Report – “The Iran War and the South Caucasus”, prepared by our partner organization, the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS). The full report is available at the following link: https://sceeus.se/en/publications/the-iran-war-and-the-south-caucasus/
Authors: Gia Japaridze and Teona Zurabishvili
Executive summary
The ongoing military escalation against Iran could be a critical juncture for Georgia that extends
beyond a conventional security challenge. Politically, it risks accelerating Georgia’s foreign
policy reorientation and lending greater legitimacy to more repressive and nationalist-religious
forms of rule. Economically, although Georgia is not directly dependent on Iran, expanding
trade, Iranian-linked business activity and the country’s logistical role suggest deeper exposure
to opaque networks linked to sanctions evasion. In security terms, Iran’s influence operates
through ideological, religious and social networks, increasing the risk of radicalisation among
some religious minorities, intelligence penetration and hybrid influence. At the same time, the
conflict might also renew western attention on Georgia in the wider South Caucasus context.
Whether this translates into meaningful engagement remains uncertain, but it may create
limited openings for external leverage that could modestly temper Georgia’s anti-Western shift
Author: Nino Gozalishvili
The fragmentation of the liberal international order, the rise of transactional diplomacy, and the erosion of multilateral frameworks have created new structural conditions within which smaller states navigate. This article examines how the undergoing transformations in the global order have reshaped the politics of peace across the South Caucasus and in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. The article situates the analysis within scholarly debates on liberal, illiberal, and post-liberal peace. The central argument is that as the global order fragments, peace ceases to function as a shared normative horizon and becomes instead a contested political resource whose meaning is shaped by perceived structural position within the international system. The article foregrounds two interconnected processes through which smaller states navigate this shift: structural asymmetry normalization, whereby accommodation to power asymmetry is recast as a legitimate political identity of pragmatic realism; and identity reconfiguration, whereby the external reference points through which these states anchor their domestic legitimacy are reordered. Read against a broader context of normative change and the transnational circulation of political repertoires, these processes show that the politics of peace in a fragmenting order is not only a domestic matter but the (discursive) terrain within which smaller states negotiate their place within a transforming international system.
UGSPN Annual Report 2025
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