Publications

Author: Nata Koridze

Executive Summary

The Black Sea has become a critical strategic area for Europe, due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and mounting worries about European security, energy, and connectivity. Georgia, at the heart of the Black Sea–South Caucasus nexus, is a structurally important transit state along the Middle Corridor, linking Europe, the Caspian region, and Asia. However, Georgia’s credibility with the European Union, NATO, and the United States has been weakened by its political choices marked by authoritarian trends and tacit accommodation with Russia, despite its geographic and infrastructural assets.

Georgia faces two clear paths: it can function mainly as a transit corridor and risk marginalization and de facto integration into Russia’s sphere, or it can pursue full alignment with democratic, Western-oriented structures. The former path means authoritarian consolidation, political isolation on international scene and loss of strategic agency leading to the de-facto loss of sovereignty. The latter path requires political clarity, institutional rebuilding, reversal of authoritarian trends and proactive engagement with Euro-Atlantic partners. In return it offers long-term security, autonomy, and regional relevance. Allowing Georgia to fall under Russia’s influence would harm not only Georgia, but the West as well. For the West, it would mean the retreat of liberal democracy in the region, the loss of strategic influence in the South Caucasus, and the loss of credibility in the Black Sea region.