პუბლიკაციები

Putin’s Russia is directly associated with the so-called power-vertical (vertical vlasti) in which every
major political decision regarding structural changes is linked to the Kremlin, i.e., Putin and his
entourage. Nonetheless, as in every authoritarian system, personal loyalty does not preclude from
building informal alliances and shared interests between powerful actors, whether political or eco
nomic. As there is no way of changing the political regime in Russia democratically, and the only
remaining option is a coup d’état-like scenario, the key question remains – who will become Putin’s
successor, and consequently, which powerful actors will build alternative power centers rivaling for
political survival and ultimate political dominance in post-Putin Russia?
While focusing on the mentioned puzzle, the research project followed the logic of the sequence of
analytical steps. First, the snapshot of the current situation in Russia, i.e., a comprehensive analysis
of the socio-political and economic status quo was done, in which major sectors of Russia’s politi
co-economic fabric were reviewed and assessed. The sectoral dynamics review was followed by
an analysis of major actors, their relevance, and their interests in respective sectors. These included
both political actors (individuals and institutions) as well as oligarchs and regional elites, with their
respective sector-linked power, financial resources or personal ties. In the end, the hypothetical
scenario, in which Putin’s figure no longer exists and power-vertical becomes questionable, made it
possible to construct a number of prospective rivaling power-centers, in which personal, corporate,
political, and financial interests of powerful actors converge. These power-centers will inevitably try
to acquire political legitimacy, oligarchic resource base, and hard (military) power, to compete and
survive. All these findings are addressed by this research, sufficiently elaborated and presented for
further discussion.

Disclaimer:
This article was first published in Un cambio de época: América del Norte y la intervención rusa en Ucrania. Geopolítica y nuevas dinámicas de la globalización.

Abstract

This paper examines the evolving dilemma of European defence integration through the prism of the debate between “more EU in Europe” and “more EU in NATO.” It analyzes the structural, political, and strategic tensions shaping EU–NATO defence cooperation in the context of renewed great-power competition and Russia’s war against Ukraine. The study situates the discussion within broader debates on European strategic autonomy, transatlantic burden-sharing, and institutional duplication, assessing whether deeper EU defence integration strengthens or fragments the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. By exploring initiatives such as PESCO, the European Defence Fund, and the EU Strategic Compass alongside NATO’s force posture adaptation and enlargement dynamics, the paper evaluates the degree of complementarity and competition between the two organizations.

The analysis argues that the core challenge is not a binary institutional choice but the management of functional interdependence between the EU and NATO. While greater EU defence capabilities may enhance European resilience and contribute to fairer burden-sharing within NATO, misaligned political visions, capability gaps, and strategic divergences risk reinforcing fragmentation. The paper concludes that sustainable European security requires calibrated integration: strengthening EU defence instruments while anchoring them firmly within NATO’s collective defence framework. The future of Euro-Atlantic security will depend on whether policymakers can reconcile ambitions for European autonomy with the enduring strategic centrality of NATO.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the transformation in Sino-Georgian relations since 2012, highlighting how bilateral ties have evolved from limited economic engagement into a formal strategic partnership. It situates this evolution within China’s more assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping, embodied in the Belt and Road Initiative and Georgia’s strategic recalibration under the Georgian Dream government. The study examines China’s motivations, including logistical access via the Middle Corridor, political diversification in the Black Sea region, and symbolic partnership with a cooperative democracy. It explores Georgia’s calculus in seeking alternative sources of investment, hedging against Western conditionality, and leveraging the relationship for domestic legitimacy. The article then assesses key risks: the asymmetry of power and unmet expectations, the tension between Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations and deeper ties with China, the waning momentum of the BRI, and the fragility of a pragmatism-based partnership. In conclusion, it argues that without stronger institutional mechanisms and clearer strategic objectives, the Sino-Georgian partnership is likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative, offering cautionary lessons for small-state diplomacy in a multipolar world.

Youth resistance in Georgia has emerged as a key actor within the landscape of non-parliamentary opposition. This paper examines how university students mobilised during the 2024 protests, not simply to contest a piece of legislation, but to engage in broader acts of political redefinition and identity reclamation. Drawing on twenty-eight ethnographic diaries, the paper investigates how emotional, symbolic, and generational practices are deployed by young activists to articulate belonging, citizenship, and resistance outside formal political institutions.
Rather than acting in coordination with the parliamentary opposition, students build their own oppositional identity through emotionally charged practices such as “identity marches,” protest rituals, and symbolic appropriation of public space. These actions reveal how emotions—particularly anger, hope, fear, pride, and confusion—function as more than expressive tools: they structure participation, forge horizontal solidarities, and sustain collective motivation over time.
The analysis highlights how students reinterpret national and European belonging as affective and civic projects, positioning themselves in opposition to both Russian influence and domestic political elites. Their actions suggest a transformation of Europeanisation from a top-down institutional narrative into a lived, grassroots civic identity. This case contributes to broader discussions on how extra-institutional opposition actors generate political agency in post-communist hybrid regimes.

UGSPN-ის ყოველწლიური ანგარიში

საქართველოს საარჩევნო ობსერვატორია (GEObserver 24) მოკლევადიანი ინიციატივაა, რომელიც მიზნად ისახავს 2024 წლის წინასაარჩევნო ნარატივების ფაქტ-ჩეკინგს. კლასიკური ფაქტ-ჩეკინგისგან განსხვავებით, ობსერვატორია არამხოლოდ ცალკეულ განცხადებებს ამოწმებს, არამედ მთლიან ნარატივს განიხილავს და მედია ანალიზთან ერთად, პოლიტიკურ ანალიზსაც გთავაზობთ. ობსერვატორია Fojo Media Institute-ის საგამოძიებო მედია ლაბისა (IML) და საქართველოს უნივერსიტეტის უსაფრთხოების, პოლიტიკისა და ნაციონალიზმის კვლევის ცენტრის (UGSPN) ერთობლივი პროექტია.

სტატიებში გამოთქმული მოსაზრებები, შესაძლოა, არ გამოხატავდეს ზემოთ ჩამოთვლილი ორგანიზაციების შეხედულებებს.

ავტორი: ნიკოლოზ ქავთარაძე

პუტინის მმართველობის პირობებში რუსეთმა გლობალურ ამოცანად დაისახა მსოფლიო ასპარეზზე ისეთ გავლენიან მოთამაშედ დაბრუნება (საბჭოთა კავშირის დროინდელი ძალაუფლების ნოსტალგიის ჭრილში), რომელიც დაასრულებდა დასავლურ ჰეგემონიას და წამყვან, შესაძლოა გადამწყვეტ როლსაც კი ითამაშებდა მრავალპოლუსიან მსოფლიო წესრიგში. ზემოხსენებული მიზნის მისაღწევად კრემლმა დასავლური ლიბერალური დემოკრატიის წინააღმდეგ „გლობალური“ ომის წარმოება დაიწყო. კრემლის გეგმით ასეთი ომის შედეგად ავტორიტარიზმმა დემოკრატიაზე უნდა გაიმარჯვოს, უნდა შეიკრას ავტორიტარული, არადემოკრატიული და ნაკლებად დემოკრატიული ქვეყნების ფორმალური თუ არაფორმალური ალიანსი და შესაბამისად შეიცვალოს სამართალზე დაფუძნებული საერთაშორისო წესრიგი.

„მედეგობის/მოწყვლადობის შეფასების ინსტრუმენტის“ ანგარიშში, ამ პროექტის ფარგლებში შემუშავებული მედეგობის/მოწყვლადობის (R/VAT) მოდელის მეშვეობით შეფასებულია საქართველოს პოლიტიკური სისტემის და მისი ძირითადი აქტორების მედეგობის/მოწყვლადობის პოტენციალი რუსული მავნე ნარატივების გავრცელების საფრთხესთან მიმართებაში.

This research analyzes contemporary trends of radicalization within Georgia, with a specific focus on the
young adult demographic. Central to this study is the deconstruction of mobilization strategies employed by the radical right, understanding their appeal among young supporters, and illuminating the motivations behind their engagement with various radical-right discourses and groups. Additionally, the analysis unpacks the commonly attributed “pro-Russian” label associated with the Georgian far right and explain the nuances of this association.

ვაჟა სოფრომაძე

გიორგი ბილანიშვილი

While the Georgian radical right has been narratively labeled as pro-Russian almost since its widespread resurgence in recent years, this designation is still in need of deconstruction. Association with Russia is a multidimensional process, varying from value association to practical links and financial networks. While all of it could be considered contributive to the destruction of liberal democracy, the nuanced understanding of “pro-Russianness” within Georgia’s radical right is salient at least for the following reasons: it assists in identifying the core of the challenge and focusing solution-oriented discussion on the matter; moreover, it reflects on the indirect ways of influencing the youth’s ideological inclinations and positions on democratic values; and finally, it contributes to tailoring policy suggestions to the nuances of the issue. 

The pro-Russian sentiments within certain political and non-governmental organizations in Georgia are evident, despite their reluctance to openly identify in this way. Following the conceptual framework, those entities falling under the pro-Russian category exhibit distinctive features such as a marked anti-Western stance, strong pro-Russian rhetoric, viewing the West as a primary threat, considering Russia a civilizational choice, and advocating for military neutrality or alignment with Russia. Their narratives, while fitting all four points of the pro-Russian type within Silagadze’s framework, extend further to underscore a shared perspective. This perspective emphasizes that dialogue with Russia stands as the sole pragmatic path forward, representing the cornerstone for addressing pressing issues, notably the resolution of the long-standing challenges posed by the occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While not explic- itly self-proclaimed as pro-Russian, their alignment becomes evident through an analysis of their discourse. 

"If the political ends are vague or unspecified, how can you choose methods and means that are fit for purpose" - Colin Gray

Author: Shalva Dzebisashvili

Abstract

Since the Bucharest summit declaration that promised the NATO-membership to Ukraine and Georgia, the option of the membership action plan (MAP) - formally the only mechanism for joining the alliance - became increasingly controversial, politicized and questionable, putting the credibility of the Alliance and its promises under the big question mark. The article doubles down on the debatable value of the MAP from the perspective of military deterrence and argues that the current version of the membership action plan does nothing whatsoever to increase the deterrent of a membership candidate, and in contrary, may lead to a much higher probability of military threat, i.e. aggression. Hence, the MAP appears to acquire a purely formal nature, with no practical applicability and military value to secure the membership process itself. Realizing this but not admitting it openly, the alliance is therefore trapped in its hesitance to decide on membership, thus effectively "donating" the veto right to a revisionist country that actively opposes the enlargement policy. The rapid inclusion of Finland and Sweden in NATO without formally activating the MAP-procedure, is reviewed as the vivid demonstration and testimony of the accuracy of arguments provided in the article.